Crowds are Your New Crystal Ball

Community Guest Blog post by By Hal Schlenger

Can you relate to this situation:  If you ask a person (a prospective customer, a current customer or a spouse) what they want, is it what they really want?   Face it.  We’re a kind, gentle people at heart; we tell people what they like to hear and we avoid conflict.

Consider asking a prospective customer or spouse if they prefer low salt, low fat chips (like Sun Chips) or high salt, high fat chips (Lays, Fritos).  A person may say that they want low salt, low fat, but Lays and Fritos are the big sellers.

So the challenge becomes predicting your prospective customers’ actions and not necessarily aligning with what traditional survey answers say.  It needs to be forward looking instead of only reflecting actions in the past.

James Surowiecki, in his book “The Wisdom of the Crowd”, wrote that “large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.”

One would think this leads to ‘group think’ or ‘mob mentality.’  It would become a popularity contest instead of an indication of buying. Both the book and Infosurv’s case studies dismiss this concern.

Using a typical sample size of 350 responses (for 95% confidence), John Barrett, Vice President at Infosurv presented a market predictor that was supported by two case studies.  The concept simplifies the complex thinking of customers.  By asking people to complete an online tool that people assign “relative stock values” to different ideas, such as product designs and SKU optimization plans, the respondents or “traders” invest in the outcomes of the ideas being tested, weight their decision with currency allocations, provide an opened ended “why I picked ‘x’” and are rewarded for accurate predictions.

Unlike most survey tools, this tool lets you know what prior respondents were thinking by seeing the ‘stock price’ go up and down, and allows you to ‘get a deal’ if you think an undervalued idea is the best solution. And the respondents have an interest and knowledge of the category in contrast to demographically selected respondents who may not have both.  As John pointed out, “Your customers are not always the best predictor of their own behavior” which is similar to the lack of connection between your satisfied customers and your loyal customers.

Example of Concept Valuation: As more participants (traders) responded, Concept C to rivaled Concept A, which is much of what the company pursued.

John’s table compares traditional surveys to a market predicting tool, showing how a market predicting tool provides a narrower and faster listening device.

My take-away: The art of listening is evolving as the art of speaking evolves.

For more information, contact John Barrett, Vice President of Sales, Infosurv, Inc. at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .